Tax refund 2027: will I get money back?

How much will you get back or pay? 2026 examples

Rough size of the settlement of your 2026 income for a single full-time job, by gross monthly salary. ‘Gets back’: the final tax is lower than the withholding tax deducted. ‘Pays’: it is higher. With a gap under €50 either way, the result is ‘roughly even’.

Gaps close to zero can switch direction from one salary to the next: holiday pay is subject to withholding tax in brackets, which sometimes lands a little above and sometimes a little below the real tax. These amounts come from the Indexo engine, the same one as the calculator. They will be compared with the official FPS Finance simulator (Tax-Calc) as soon as its version for tax year 2027 is published.

Why the 2026 withholding tax does not match your tax

Withholding tax (bedrijfsvoorheffing / précompte professionnel) is an advance on your income tax: your employer deducts it every month using a scale set for the whole year. The final tax is calculated the following year, on all your income. The difference is refunded to you, or claimed from you.

The personal income tax reform, passed in July 2026, gradually raises the tax-free amount, the part of your income that is not taxed. For 2026 income, it reaches €11,550, against about €11,180 without the reform. The withholding tax deducted in 2026 was only partly adjusted: it is based on €11,170. The €380 gap is taxed at the first rate of 25%, hence about €95 less tax for an employee.

This gain does not apply to everyone as it stands. For pensions and benefits (unemployment, sickness), the reform also adjusts the tax reductions for those incomes: the effect can be nil, or even negative.

What tips the balance

• Holiday pay and bonuses. They are subject to a ‘non-recurring’ withholding tax, at a fixed rate that can be lower than your real rate. For blue-collar workers, holiday pay is paid by the holiday fund with a withholding tax of 17.16% or 23.22%: that is the main reason they have tax to pay.
• A single-income couple. The marital quotient transfers part of the income to the partner with no income. The 2026 withholding tax counts it up to €13,790 a year, the tax only up to €11,780: on a high salary, the gap can turn into tax to pay (about €220 at €5,000 gross a month, on our estimates).
• November and December 2026. For pay received from 1 November 2026, withholding tax follows a new calculation (Royal Decree of 27 September 2026): the tax-free amount, the marital quotient and the reductions for dependants are adapted. The estimates on this page take this into account: ten months under the previous calculation, two months under the new one.
• Low salaries. The fiscal work bonus is a refundable tax credit (Article 289ter/1 of the Income Tax Code 1992), up to €2,000 a year for 2026 income. Each month it is granted through the withholding tax, but only down to zero. When the withholding tax is too low to absorb it, for example in a single-income couple, the rest is refunded to you with the settlement.
• Dependent children. The reduction in withholding tax and the extra tax-free amount do not exactly offset each other.
• Your municipality. Withholding tax does not take the real municipal tax into account. Indexo assumes 7%; your municipality may apply a different rate.
• The rest of your tax return. Pension savings, childcare expenses, donations, actual expenses or an old mortgage loan reduce the tax. Extra income (a second job, benefits, a rental) increases it.

Pitfalls to avoid

• Two employers in the same year: each one deducts withholding tax as if theirs were your only salary. The final tax, calculated on the total, is often higher.
• Benefits (temporary unemployment, sickness): the withholding tax on them is often low. Expect to pay extra.
• A refund is not a gift: it is your own money, overpaid during the year.

Old mortgage loan: what benefit on your 2026 income?

Since 1 January 2025, no Region grants a tax benefit any longer for a new mortgage loan on your own home. Old loans keep their scheme: it depends on the Region where you lived on 1 January 2027 and on the year the loan was signed. As a rule, the benefit does not appear on the payslip: it reduces the final tax, so it increases the refund.

What counts in the calculation

• The amounts paid during the year: interest, capital and mortgage protection insurance premiums, as shown on your bank’s annual certificate. The reduction never exceeds what you have repaid.
• The only home: the housing bonus and the chèque habitat assume that the property was your only home on 31 December of the year of the loan, and that you live there.
• Refinancing: a loan that repays an old loan keeps the date of the original loan, for the part that repays the old one. In Wallonia, refinancing a loan signed from 2016 to 2024 therefore keeps the chèque habitat.
• The Walloon chèque habitat: €1,520 a year as long as your net taxable income does not exceed €28,024, then 1.275% less per euro above that, and nothing above €108,093. On top of that comes €125 per dependent child, shared between both parents. The whole amount is halved from the 11th to the 20th year.
• The first ten years: the increases (for example €760 in Flanders, and €80 more with three children) only apply for the year of the loan and the nine following years. For 2026 income, they only concern Flemish loans signed from 2017 to 2019.

Second home or let property

For a home you do not live in, the deduction of interest has been abolished since 2025 income, for all loans, with no transitional scheme. The capital and insurance of a loan signed before 1 January 2024 can still give the federal long-term savings reduction (30%), within a joint ceiling of €2,450 a year.

A new loan no longer gives any tax benefit: for a purchase project, work out how much you can borrow instead. Before 31 December, other expenses still reduce your 2026 tax: see the year-end tax checklist. When you file your return, the tax return assistant will help you carry over the amounts from the certificate, and the household tax simulator calculates the couple’s tax with all their income.

Frequently asked questions

What next?

• Year-end tax checklistWhat still reduces your 2026 tax, to do before 31 December.
• Actual expenses or lump sum?Your proven expenses can reduce the tax and increase the refund.
• Household tax simulatorThe couple’s full tax, all income included.
• Tax return assistantThe amounts on your tax form 281.10 and your loan certificate, in the right box.